Statistics Task 1: Answering Questions about Hypothesis Formation

You have been asked to begin your work as part of the Statistics Team at the NDCC. You have been asked to respond to Jennifer, who has a question about the hypothesis she has developed for her study about high school students and the chicken pox vaccine. You need to help Jennifer evaluate her hypothesis to see if it is a good one to “test” and, if not, identify the problems with it. This will help her understand both why she needs to change it and how she can make it better (or more of a “testable” hypothesis).

The following steps will help you do your work.

1. Before you begin your work, find a peer to work with for this task. Although each of you will be responsible for submitting your own work, you may work with one another to better analyze the questions and come up with the important components of your response. You may partner with someone you have worked with before or with more than one person, or as otherwise advised by your mentor.
   
   
2. Review the email and make sure you understand what question(s) you are being asked to answer in this task.
   
   
3. Review the Resources available for this task which will help you to consider the important points in forming a good, testable hypothesis. You will refer back to these FAQs throughout this task.

Evaluate and Modify “Practice” Hypotheses

To better understand the various issues related to hypothesis formation, you and your peer should evaluate a series of “practice” hypotheses, to determine if they need to be modified. The purpose in doing these revisions is to give you some experience in re-working several hypotheses so you can better answer Jennifer’s questions about the hypothesis she has formed for her study.

Note: If you have any difficulty during this mini-task, go back to the Resources section. If you still have questions, check-in with your mentor.

1. Working with your peer, read through the hypotheses below.
   
   
   1. “Couples who get pre-marital counseling are less likely to get divorced once they are married.”
      
      
   2. “Babies born to mothers who receive good prenatal care and gain the appropriate weight during pregnancy are less likely to be born pre-mature.”
      
      
   3. “Students who eat a healthy breakfast every day don’t get in trouble at school.”
      
      
   4. “Students that take advanced math and science courses during high school graduate from college at the same rate as those who don’t take advanced math and science courses in high school.”
      
      
   5. “Dogs that eat expensive, organic dog food live longer than those that eat generic dog food.”
      
      
   6. “Men in their 40s who exercise at least 3 days/week for at least 1 hr/day had the same rate of heart attacks as those that did not exercise at least 3 days/week for at least 1 hr/day.”
      
      
2. Now review them again, this time with an eye toward their testability. For each hypothesis, consider the following:
   
   
   • Is it a good, testable hypothesis?
     
     
   • Why or why not? (e.g., Is it simple? Is it specific? Is it stated as a null hypothesis?)
     
     
   • If it is not, rewrite each hypothesis so that it is correct.
     
     
     • Write the corresponding alternative hypothesis for each null hypothesis.
       
       
     • Note: Some hypotheses may need to be revised into two separate hypotheses.
       
       
3. Review your answers with your mentor to make sure you are on track with the work you have done on evaluating these hypotheses before responding to Jennifer’s request.

Drafting the Email Response

1. This time without your peer, draft an email response answering Jennifer’s questions about her hypothesis.
   
   
   • Make sure to identify which factors are important to consider when creating a good, testable hypothesis. Include an explanation about why a testable hypothesis needs to be framed in its “null” state.
     
     
   • Explain to Jennifer how her hypothesis does or doesn’t meet the definition of a good, testable hypothesis. If needed, revise her hypothesis into a good, testable hypothesis, identifying all of the problems with it in its original form.
     
     
   • Make your email response clear and concise. It should be easy to understand and not include any information that would be distracting to the reader.
     
     
2. Next, conduct a review of your email responses by exchanging responses with your peer.
   
   
   • Review one another’s email response to determine if the email meets the requirements listed above. If an email response does not meet all of the requirements, help one another identify how it can be modified to be more clear and/or complete.
     

Submit your individual response to your mentor.

Review the checklist located in the Submit Your Work section of this task before submitting your response to your mentor.

Stats Task 1 Resources

The resources below will help you get started on this task. You use other resources that you've used in this or other rotations, or to do additional research to help clarify concepts or to gain a deeper understanding of the subject matter. View the General Skills Resources link on the left for more information on research including evaluating web resources.

While Wikipedia is a valuable resource, unlike some other websites anyone can contribute to or modify the site (whether they're knowledgeable about the topic or not). As a result, the site is subject to constant change by questionable sources. Be sure to cross-check information on Wikipedia with other reputable sites to ensure accuracy.

Hypotheses and the Scientific Method FAQ
This FAQ supports you in creating and testing scientific hypotheses, with examples and explanations.

Hypotheses for Epidemiology FAQ
General information on hypotheses and testing with emphasis on hypotheses for epidemiology studies.

Medline Plus
A medical dictionary from Medline Plus to help with scientific terms.